With an unexpected announcement, a key leading hopefuls in the Irish election for president has withdrawn from the campaign, dramatically altering the political landscape.
Fianna Fáil's Jim Gavin stepped down on Sunday night following disclosures about an financial obligation to a former tenant, turning the contest into an uncertain head-to-head battle between a centre-right past cabinet member and an independent leftwing member of parliament.
Gavin, 54, a newcomer to politics who joined the election after careers in athletics, flying and armed forces, quit after it came to light he had not repaid a excess rental payment of €3,300 when he was a property owner about in the mid-2000s, during a period of financial difficulty.
"I made a mistake that was contrary to my values and the principles I uphold. I am now taking steps to address the matter," he declared. "Reflecting deeply, about the potential impact of the current political contest on the health of my loved ones and companions.
"Weighing all these factors, I've chosen to exit from the race for the presidency with right away and return to the arms of my family."
The most dramatic event in a election race in modern times limited the options to one candidate, a ex-minister who is representing the governing moderate right party Fine Gael, and Catherine Connolly, an vocal pro-Palestinian voice who is supported by Sinn Féin and left-leaning minor parties.
The withdrawal also caused a problem for the taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, who had put his reputation on the line by selecting an unproven contender over the doubts of fellow members.
He commented Gavin did not want to "cause dispute" to the presidency and was right to withdraw. "He acknowledged that he committed a mistake in relation to an matter that has emerged recently."
Even with a track record of capability and achievements in enterprise and sports – under his leadership the capital's GAA team to multiple successive wins – his election effort faltered through blunders that left him trailing in an survey even ahead of the debt news.
Fianna Fáil figures who had been against choosing Gavin said the fiasco was a "major error in judgment" that would have "consequences" – a thinly veiled warning to the leader.
Gavin's name may stay on the voting paper in the poll taking place in late October, which will conclude the lengthy term of President Higgins, but voters now face a dichotomy between a centrist establishment candidate and an autonomous progressive. Survey results prior to Gavin's exit gave Connolly a third of the vote and 23 percent for Humphreys, with Gavin on 15%.
Under electoral rules, the electorate chooses contenders based on preference. In case nobody reaches half the votes initially, the contender receiving the lowest first preference votes is removed and their votes are transferred to the subsequent choice.
Analysts predicted that in the event of his exclusion, most of his votes would transfer to Humphreys, and vice versa, increasing the likelihood that a pro-government candidate would attain the presidency for the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition.
The presidency is a largely symbolic post but the current and former presidents transformed it into a venue for worldwide concerns.
Connolly, 68, from Galway, would bring a strong leftwing voice to that tradition. Connolly has attacked neoliberal economics and stated the organization constitutes "a fundamental element" of the Palestinian community. She has charged NATO of promoting military solutions and likened Berlin's enhanced defense expenditure to the thirties, when the Nazi leader built up military forces.
The 62-year-old Humphreys, has encountered examination over her performance in government in cabinets that oversaw a accommodation problem. As a Protestant from the county Monaghan near the border, she has also been criticised over her failure to speak Gaelic but said her faith tradition could help win over unionist community in a reunified nation.
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